Comments on: Japan, waking up to peak oil? http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/japan-and-peak-oil/#utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=japan-and-peak-oil Web Magazine and Video Briefs dealing with Climate Change, Peak Oil and Food Security in Japan and the World Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:49:13 +0900 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Duco Delgorge http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/japan-and-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-3635 Duco Delgorge Wed, 27 May 2009 00:02:23 +0000 http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/2009/04/27/japan-and-peak-oil/#comment-3635 Hello Brendan It was great to meet you at Green Mondays last Monday and to see your presentation on Our World 2.0. This article on Peak Oil is excellent. It clearly explains the predicament we are in. Unfortunately, as our problems get larger, the answers to those problems become more difficult to find. We are like the deer in the headlights. Or as Julie Andrews once sang..."Sometimes I think this sad old world is whistling in the dark". But we must rise to the major challenges that face us. I hope that I can contribute somehow. For now, congratulations on this great initiative. Let's keep building the momentum...greater awareness...greater understanding of the need to act...maybe we can turn the page to a more promising future. Hello Brendan
It was great to meet you at Green Mondays last Monday and to see your presentation on Our World 2.0. This article on Peak Oil is excellent. It clearly explains the predicament we are in. Unfortunately, as our problems get larger, the answers to those problems become more difficult to find. We are like the deer in the headlights. Or as Julie Andrews once sang…”Sometimes I think this sad old world is whistling in the dark”. But we must rise to the major challenges that face us. I hope that I can contribute somehow. For now, congratulations on this great initiative. Let’s keep building the momentum…greater awareness…greater understanding of the need to act…maybe we can turn the page to a more promising future.

]]> By: Tony Boys http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/japan-and-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-3290 Tony Boys Sun, 17 May 2009 11:35:21 +0000 http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/2009/04/27/japan-and-peak-oil/#comment-3290 Hi Brendan, Thanks for mentioning me and the Final Energy Crisis 2nd Edition. There is a longer but older paper about food and energy in Japan on my website noted above (pdfs in Japanese and English) - feel free to download and so on. By the way, Antony has no "h" and I usuall cally myself "Tony" anyway - no problem. The problem with the 50 years to survivability is that we really have no basis for knowing what is going to happen over the next 50 years, so this is VERY hypothetical and speculative. Since I live here (Ibaraki) I'm hoping there will not be a sudden energy crash bringing on a cessation of food imports, because that could be very bad indeed. The main reason for doing this work is to try to impress upon people that if we wish to arrange for a "soft-landing" within the next three decades or so then we really ought to get started on it now - and that definitely includes the government & bureaucracy. I look forward to exchanging opinions and so on with you in the future. Hi Brendan,

Thanks for mentioning me and the Final Energy Crisis 2nd Edition. There is a longer but older paper about food and energy in Japan on my website noted above (pdfs in Japanese and English) – feel free to download and so on.

By the way, Antony has no “h” and I usuall cally myself “Tony” anyway – no problem.

The problem with the 50 years to survivability is that we really have no basis for knowing what is going to happen over the next 50 years, so this is VERY hypothetical and speculative. Since I live here (Ibaraki) I’m hoping there will not be a sudden energy crash bringing on a cessation of food imports, because that could be very bad indeed. The main reason for doing this work is to try to impress upon people that if we wish to arrange for a “soft-landing” within the next three decades or so then we really ought to get started on it now – and that definitely includes the government & bureaucracy. I look forward to exchanging opinions and so on with you in the future.

]]> By: Brendan Barrett http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/japan-and-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-2964 Brendan Barrett Fri, 08 May 2009 00:35:04 +0000 http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/2009/04/27/japan-and-peak-oil/#comment-2964 Thanks for your excellent observations. You are correct. This article focuses mainly on what the Japanese is government is doing in terms of long range energy planning. We do foresee writing more on the interactions between peak oil, food security and climate change for Japan and other countries. With respect to the issue of Japan and food, there is an excellent article by Anthony Boys entitled "How will Japan feed itself without fossil energy?" published in The Final Energy Crisis, edited by Shiela Newman. He argues that it will take around 50 years for population to fall and for arable land to reach their 1950 levels, at around 11 peple per arable ha. This population to arable land ratio would be survivable, if not comfortable. So without doubt, in the worst case scenario, the challenges are formidable for countries like Japan that rely heavily of food imports. The question is how to translate this into a national policy. With respect to the IEA projections, again your assesment is correct and it was only in 2008 that they began to look at the supply side. This appears to have been a big wake up call. We have taken note of the wide range of predictions on when peak oil will occur and recognize that there is considerable evidence pointing to an imminent peak (including those who suggest 2008). In this context, there really is urgent need for more intensive international debate on this topic and coordinated action. That does not appear to be happening, as yet, outside some of the websites you have highlighted. Thanks for your excellent observations. You are correct. This article focuses mainly on what the Japanese is government is doing in terms of long range energy planning. We do foresee writing more on the interactions between peak oil, food security and climate change for Japan and other countries. With respect to the issue of Japan and food, there is an excellent article by Anthony Boys entitled “How will Japan feed itself without fossil energy?” published in The Final Energy Crisis, edited by Shiela Newman. He argues that it will take around 50 years for population to fall and for arable land to reach their 1950 levels, at around 11 peple per arable ha. This population to arable land ratio would be survivable, if not comfortable. So without doubt, in the worst case scenario, the challenges are formidable for countries like Japan that rely heavily of food imports. The question is how to translate this into a national policy.
With respect to the IEA projections, again your assesment is correct and it was only in 2008 that they began to look at the supply side. This appears to have been a big wake up call.
We have taken note of the wide range of predictions on when peak oil will occur and recognize that there is considerable evidence pointing to an imminent peak (including those who suggest 2008). In this context, there really is urgent need for more intensive international debate on this topic and coordinated action. That does not appear to be happening, as yet, outside some of the websites you have highlighted.

]]> By: ccpo http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/japan-and-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-2962 ccpo Fri, 08 May 2009 00:01:16 +0000 http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/2009/04/27/japan-and-peak-oil/#comment-2962 As a foreign resident of Korea, I am interested in what you have to say above, primarily because I see the two countries as roughly analogous in terms of energy and the future. Both have very little in the way of natural resources, heavily FF-dependent economies, high population density and (I assume) a problem feeding those people without global trade. Your article doesn't address other aspects of The Perfect Storm: economy, food production and ACC (anthropogenically-forced Climate Change.) It seems rather obvious that the interplay of the various issues is going to make tackling any one of them much harder. By a rough calculation, for example, Korea has about .03 acres of arable land per person. The latest figures I have heard on food production indicate Korea can grow most of the rice it consumes, but a very small percentage of other foods. Peak Oil would have a devastating effect on food availability and prices absent adequate replacement by non-FF energy sources. To make matters worse, you point to 2020 for peak oil production based on IEA estimates. The problem is, the IEA's estimates of production have, until November '08, been based on assumptions of need and that oil production would simply ramp up to meet demand. This was based on no peak till 2030 or later. In fact, they had never done a study on peak until '08. Their report in '08 was a welcome change, indicating the more objective faction in the IEA was gaining prominence. While the IEA did finally look at and define decline rates, still, there were some issues with the report, the idea of a 2020 peak among them. That date requires us to accept that the reserves as stated in the Middle East are actually as stated publicly, which is highly doubtful. At least two Gulf nations have been shown to be inflating reserves via internal memos leaked to the public. The rises of the 1980's appear to have been political, not geological. Here are two discussions of the IEA's decline rates and peak: Part I http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4820 Part II http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5180 Supporting these analyses is this analysis http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177 stating a 2008 peak for production. It takes into consideration decline rates and above ground (economic and geopolitical) factors. If these analyses are correct, both Japan and Korea are in very serious trouble in terms of Peak Oil, but most seriously in terms of food. I'd like to hear your thoughts on this. Cheers As a foreign resident of Korea, I am interested in what you have to say above, primarily because I see the two countries as roughly analogous in terms of energy and the future. Both have very little in the way of natural resources, heavily FF-dependent economies, high population density and (I assume) a problem feeding those people without global trade.

Your article doesn’t address other aspects of The Perfect Storm: economy, food production and ACC (anthropogenically-forced Climate Change.) It seems rather obvious that the interplay of the various issues is going to make tackling any one of them much harder.

By a rough calculation, for example, Korea has about .03 acres of arable land per person. The latest figures I have heard on food production indicate Korea can grow most of the rice it consumes, but a very small percentage of other foods. Peak Oil would have a devastating effect on food availability and prices absent adequate replacement by non-FF energy sources.

To make matters worse, you point to 2020 for peak oil production based on IEA estimates. The problem is, the IEA’s estimates of production have, until November ‘08, been based on assumptions of need and that oil production would simply ramp up to meet demand. This was based on no peak till 2030 or later. In fact, they had never done a study on peak until ‘08.

Their report in ‘08 was a welcome change, indicating the more objective faction in the IEA was gaining prominence. While the IEA did finally look at and define decline rates, still, there were some issues with the report, the idea of a 2020 peak among them. That date requires us to accept that the reserves as stated in the Middle East are actually as stated publicly, which is highly doubtful. At least two Gulf nations have been shown to be inflating reserves via internal memos leaked to the public. The rises of the 1980’s appear to have been political, not geological.

Here are two discussions of the IEA’s decline rates and peak:

Part I http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4820

Part II http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5180

Supporting these analyses is this analysis

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177

stating a 2008 peak for production. It takes into consideration decline rates and above ground (economic and geopolitical) factors.

If these analyses are correct, both Japan and Korea are in very serious trouble in terms of Peak Oil, but most seriously in terms of food.

I’d like to hear your thoughts on this.

Cheers

]]> By: Jonathan Callahan http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/japan-and-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-2950 Jonathan Callahan Thu, 07 May 2009 18:08:56 +0000 http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/2009/04/27/japan-and-peak-oil/#comment-2950 For Japan, the return of a global bidding war for energy resources will be particularly devastating. When the demand destruction that has occurred in the past year finally ends, this bidding war will begin again in earnest. Interested readers can educate themselves further by reviewing the charts in <a href="http://mazamascience.com/OilExport" rel="nofollow">Energy Export Databrowser</a>. This website provides an interactive interface to charts based on the British Petroleum Statistical Review -- a widely used and respected database that covers 40 years of coal, oil and natural gas statistics. Happy Exploring! For Japan, the return of a global bidding war for energy resources will be particularly devastating. When the demand destruction that has occurred in the past year finally ends, this bidding war will begin again in earnest.

Interested readers can educate themselves further by reviewing the charts in Energy Export Databrowser.

This website provides an interactive interface to charts based on the British Petroleum Statistical Review — a widely used and respected database that covers 40 years of coal, oil and natural gas statistics.

Happy Exploring!

]]> By: Brendan Barrett http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/japan-and-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-2927 Brendan Barrett Thu, 07 May 2009 05:08:44 +0000 http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/2009/04/27/japan-and-peak-oil/#comment-2927 Climate progress has an interesting article on new renewable energy goals for China. I qoute: "They expect to more than triple their wind capacity goal, resulting in 100 gigawatts of wind power by 2020, and surpass by five to tenfold the target set for solar." This would work out at 100,000 MW generated by wind power by 2020 and nearly 10,000 MW from solar. See original article here - http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/06/energy-and-global-warming-news-china-solar-wind/ Climate progress has an interesting article on new renewable energy goals for China. I qoute:

“They expect to more than triple their wind capacity goal, resulting in 100 gigawatts of wind power by 2020, and surpass by five to tenfold the target set for solar.”

This would work out at 100,000 MW generated by wind power by 2020 and nearly 10,000 MW from solar.

See original article here – http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/06/energy-and-global-warming-news-china-solar-wind/

]]> By: All About Green Energy http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/japan-and-peak-oil/comment-page-1/#comment-2880 All About Green Energy Wed, 06 May 2009 00:51:40 +0000 http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/2009/04/27/japan-and-peak-oil/#comment-2880 [...] Japan, waking up to peak oil? | OurWorld 2.0 [...] [...] Japan, waking up to peak oil? | OurWorld 2.0 [...]

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